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Commentary

Patrick Mullin, CFA

Patrick Mullin, CFA is a Partner and Managing Director at Timber Point Capital Management, LLC. Mr. Mullin is the Founder and CIO of Ardara Capital, a small and mid capitalization hedge fund founded in 2011. From 2013 through 2017, Mr. Mullin served as a consultant and COO at DeepDive Automated Research, a financial technology company, where he oversaw daily operations and fostered important client and strategic relationships. Prior to Ardara Capital, Mr. Mullin spent 10 years at Lazard Asset Management where he was the Portfolio Manager for the $3 billion AUM U.S. Small Cap Product in addition to his analytical coverage of the energy, technology and healthcare industries. Mr. Mullin is a graduate of Trinity College, has an M.B.A. from The Kenan-Flagler School at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and holds a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.

Recent Posts

Covid-19 Recovery Stocks Still Attractive, Despite What You Might Hear...

September 2020 | Patrick Mullin, CFA Insights
Okay, we all need to take a very deep breath. No doubt you have heard the news that Covid-19 cases have increased over the past week, both domestically and internationally. Given what we have been through over the past 6 months this instinctively brings unpleasant memories of economic “lockdowns” and stay at home orders. Let’s look beneath the surface of these numbers to help you understand why we do not think that will be the case this time around.
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Investment Implications of a Post-Covid Economy

September 2020 | Patrick Mullin, CFA Insights
We reiterate our belief from our last blog that the Covid-19 pandemic is on the wane in the U.S. based on the decline in national and state Covid-19 hospitalization figures that we continue to monitor. As a reminder, we focus on hospitalizations as a leading indicator of future deaths associated with Covid-19. Hospitalization rates across the U.S. continue to decline and totals in the three “hot” states of California, Florida and Texas are no exception. Given that these three states account for ~ 50% of the daily U.S. deaths over the past few weeks this is important. With fewer deaths at the state and national level, we believe that elected officials will gain more latitude to further open local and state economies. In turn, this could lead to a rotation in the U.S. equity market to “reopening” stocks from the “work from home” stocks.
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Covid-19 - "Second Wave" Dynamics

We all may be tired of hearing about Covid-19 but it remains important to monitor as we believe it continues to drive the direction of incremental dollars in the marketplace, specifically the ongoing appetite for “work from home” stocks in lieu of the more cyclically oriented “reopening” stocks. We decided to take a deeper dive into the Covid-19 situation and how the “second wave” in several states (TX, CA, FL) is now playing out. Our conclusion is encouraging given that the three states appear to be experiencing drastically lower hospitalization rates in their respective “hot spots” which should eventually result in lower mortality numbers for the U.S. overall. In turn, this could provide the opportunity for beleaguered sectors to return to more normal levels of economic activity.
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